Judgmental heuristics are principles or methods by which one makes

assessments or judgments of probability simpler. These heuristic are often very

useful but sometimes they lead to systematic errors. In activity #1 A- the

principle that is used is the representativeness heuristics it uses an event which

is judged to be probable to the extent that it represents the essential features of

the parent population or of its generating process (garns).

In activity #1-B I actually chose in this case between the options of heads,

Tails or no preference. I chose no preference. There should be no preference in

a 50/50 gamble. Therefore this example was also a Representative Heuristic

however this used the gambler's fallacy. This states "that a successful outcome

is due after a run of bad luck or that a series of independent trials with the

same outcome will soon be followed by an opposite outcome" (Plous, 1993).

Activity 2......

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Title: Judgmental Heuristics
Approximate Word Count: 633
Approximate Pages: 3 (250 words per double-spaced page)

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