Activities #1 and #2 deals with correlations between confidence and accuracy. When most people say they are 100% sure their answer is correct, they are usually between 70-85% correct. According to the classroom material (2006) "A decision maker is perfectly calibrated when,...all judgments at a given level of confidence, the proportion of accurate judgments is identical to the expected probability of being correct."(p.5).
In Activity 3, after reviewing the cards with letters and numbers the Self-Fulfilling Prophecies are being demonstrated. The problem being tested is if X, then Y; the correct way to determine the solution is to flip cards E and 7 to confirm the statement. Many individuals will conduct the opposite and pick the cards to agree with the statement but until the correct cards were picked then it would confirm the answer.
In Activity #4-Investment trap is the principle that is used in this situation. Investment traps occur when prior expenditures of time,......

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Title: Nit 4 Decision Making
Approximate Word Count: 415
Approximate Pages: 2 (250 words per double-spaced page)

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